A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
