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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime underperformers rising in unison. Under an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a normal season!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still