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An ex-colonel from the special forces, minister of state Al Carns was this week on manouevres warning that the UK needs to be preparing for war with Russia.

“The shadow of war is knocking on Europe’s door once more. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to prevent it,” he said, in remarks that go beyond previous warnings by his boss, the defence secretary.

“As a whole society – what is their role if we get caught in an existential crisis, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a armed campaign?”

It was blunt language from the middle-aged Scottish-born MP, who has had an remarkably rapid rise to his role of minister for the military.

Rapid Rise to Prominence

And inevitably for a politician with a background in the armed forces, there is conjecture about whether he is a potential future leader – as with, at various points, previous colleagues from a service background before him.

This time, however, some governing party MPs think there could be a real prospect of Carns being a candidate if and when the opportunity presents itself.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been involved in politics for longer than it seems, as a former military adviser to three previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the risk of being overhyped as a politician with a personal history colleagues think will resonate with the public – without enough thought of whether they have the experience and shrewdness to make it to the top.

From the Battlefield to Westminster

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and educated in the state system, before joining the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He advanced his career and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “in recognition of gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a surprise when he resigned from the armed forces after 24 years of service to run as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, shortly before he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately earmarked as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a minister for veterans affairs straight after the 2024 election. He was elevated later that year to the more senior role with a portfolio covering all the military.

Media Presence and Political Attacks

Chiselled and confident, Carns has been an occasional media performer for the government, and has been an sharp partisan operator when putting pressure on rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to break a world record this year along with former military colleagues by climbing Mount Everest in under five days without acclimating on the mountain, aided by xenon gas.

Ambitions and Party Skepticism

His name was floated as a possible future leader seriously around the time of a leadership election last autumn, when his backers began sounding out MPs about a run for the job. That failed to get off the ground, with the prime minister's office firmly backing another candidate.

Since then, feature articles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be leadership material, others think he is making himself appear overly eager when there is no opening at the top. There is also a apprehension about the meteoric ascent of a high flyer from outside politics.

“There’s no evidence that being senior in the military equates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” notes one MP. “He is completely untested.”